From WSJ:
U.S. lawmakers, already under pressure to move controversial health-care legislation and a revamp of the financial system, were saddled Friday with the unpopular task of quickly increasing the maximum amount of money the federal government can borrow.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in a letter he sent to top U.S. lawmakers on Friday, asked Congress to move “as soon as possible” to increase the nation’s statutory debt limit. The Treasury estimates that the $12.1 trillion current limit could be reached as soon as mid-October, Mr. Geithner wrote.
“It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations,” Mr. Geithner said in the letter.
…
The request highlights the difficulty facing the Obama administration and Congress as they take on an ambitious legislative agenda while also seeking to improve the nation’s fiscal position amidst a still-troubled economy. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said last week that the federal government’s budget deficit is on track to reach a record high of $1.8 trillion for fiscal 2009, after reaching $1.3 trillion through the first ten months of the fiscal year.
If Congress agrees to the Treasury’s request, it would mark the second increase in the debt ceiling this year. The economic stimulus package passed by Congress earlier this year increased the debt ceiling by $789 billion to $12.1 trillion. As of Aug. 7, the federal debt outstanding totaled roughly $11.7 trillion.
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Robert Bixby, executive director of budget watchdog ‘The Concord Coalition’, said the debt ceiling has little practical application in curtailing government spending.
“You can’t not raise it, because if you do, the Treasury in effect would be defaulting on the debt, which would be crazy,” Mr. Bixby said. “It doesn’t really provide a whole lot of restraint.”
$11.7 trillion. $11,700,000,000,000.
$38,480 per person. For your typical family of four that amounts to a debt, largely to the Federal Reserve itself (a story for another day) and China, in the amount of $153,920. And we haven’t even reached the debt limit of $12.1 trillion yet. When this ~$1 trillion is added into the mix it is another $3,289 per person.
I don’t have that kind of money, do you?
The real problem is of course that most people do not understand the Federal Reserve system. Mr. Bixby’s comments show a commonly held belief among Republicans that simply reducing spending alone is enough to reduce or eliminate the national debt. The problem is that debt is money, with the United State’s Treasury being the prime source of increased Federal Reserve production.
If you deposit $100 into Bank A, Bank A is allowed to, depending on the reserve requirement in the moment, lend out $80 of that money. This could be in the form of loans, credit cards, finance, whatever…. they are borrowing your money to create interest for themselves, sometimes paying you a smaller percentage of that interest as a share, or granting privileges in checking. Now the real trick follows down the line when the person who obtains the $80 lent from Bank A goes to deposit that money into Bank B. Bank B is now allowed to loan out $64 of that $80, so on and so forth.
This process of monetary creation is known as Fractional Reserve Banking, and is essential to understanding what is being accomplished by this “stimulus spending”. According to the FRB rules, for every one dollar deposited into a bank, ten more can be created through the various steps of managing the assets and liabilities of banks according to the reserve requirement rules. This, of course, if shortened to a very short period of time, can lead to inflation and price instability while the market attempts to react to the new checkbook money floating around.
So, how is this relevant? Well let’s consider the $819 billion Stimulus package. This money, inevitably, will end up [well, hopefully] in the hands of the contractors and managers of various contracting firms that will be charged with the work. Through the magic of fractional reserve banking this $819 billion will eventually land on the books as assets and liabilities of various banks around the country and represent over $8.19 trillion. Of course, with the Stimulus money being spent in such a short period of time the threat of inflation remains very, very high.
Back to Mr. Bixby. I was being disingenuous earlier, I am sure he knows full well what is going on. Growth is being stimulated through the expansion of the monetary base. And he is absolutely right, should we decline to increase our debt ceiling, the original deposits, in this case the $819 billion used to create the checkbook money, would come due as demand deposits, causing imbalance in the books at every bank down the line, curtailing lending and boosting interest rates as banks try to collect profits to restore the books to good order. The only option, if the market will not tolerate these adjustments, is to somehow find a way to payoff the $8.19 trillion that was created out of those reserves.
So, really, the question we ought to be asking ourselves is how are we going to pay back this $8.19 trillion when it comes due? Simple, we won’t, as we haven’t done along with the other $11.7 trillion. As long as we have the Federal Reserve system we will just keeping expanding our debts and let inflation attempt to keep up. And that, my friends, is what is really going on.
Isn’t progress great?